The United States and China opened a summit on September 24 with signs their trade truce will hold for now. Ahead of the meeting, United States and Japanese officials discussed Chinese restrictions on yttrium exports.
China announce looser rare-earth export restrictions affecting the U.S Long shot4%▼ from 26% a week ago
The Pennsylvania Department of Health reported 890 measles cases and four deaths on September 25. Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 3,659 confirmed cases through September 24, with 95 percent linked to outbreaks.
Why it mattersPennsylvania residents face serious health risks as hospitalizations mount and four people have died from the disease.
Saudi Arabia resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting its East-West pipeline, Reuters reported on Sept 29. Bloomberg reported on Sept 28 that exports started and flows reached about 3.5 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia announce the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down by Sept 30Very unlikely18%▼ from 88% a week ago
On Sept 24, John Williams called another rate hike by year-end a reasonable expectation while stressing officials will watch incoming data. A day earlier, Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed, and Susan Collins warned of persistent inflation risks.
Why it mattersMichael Barr believes central bank changes are needed, meaning people could soon see borrowing become more expensive.
Will the Federal Reserve raise rates by 25 basis points on March 17, 2027? Hike 25bps leadsToss-up56%▲ from 22% a week ago
President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Sept 16 directing agencies to identify steps to exclude Canadian-origin goods from federal civil procurement. This follows U.S. 50% tariffs that took effect August 22 and Canada's retaliatory tariffs implemented on Sept 8.
Why it mattersThe action threatens to bar Canadian products from U.S. government purchasing as trade tensions between the nations escalate.
United States and Canada announce an agreement to lower U.S. tariffs on Canada by Oct 31Very unlikely18%▼ from 26% a week ago
The White House said on September 26 that the United States and China agreed to establish a regular communications channel for AI incidents. On September 22, Donald Trump announced that U.S. documents would replace artificial intelligence with the term super intelligence.
Trump officially rename artificial intelligence by Sept 30Toss-up55%▲ from 8% a week ago
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on September 28 that AI buildout costs, higher oil prices, and Middle East supply disruptions will keep upward pressure on inflation.
Why it mattersPersistent inflation pressures could lead policymakers to raise borrowing costs further, making loans and credit more expensive.
Date “No change” odds first exceed “Hike 25 bps” odds by Oct 15Unlikely26%▼ from 40% yesterday
Senator Thom Tillis urged Donald Trump to find a new Pentagon leader after Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned. On September 15, Representative Thomas Massie introduced impeachment articles against Hegseth over his handling of the Iran war.
Why it mattersA push for new military leadership could change how service members are treated and retained.
Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before December 1, 2026 by Dec 31, 2028Very likely86%
Will ElevenLabs rank first on Artificial Analysis’s Speech Arena Leaderboard on October 2, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET? ElevenLabs leads: Very likely (94%) ▲ from 2%
How many global Spotify streams will Taylor Swift’s “Patient Zero” get in its first week after its September 25, 2026 release? Best guess 40.4M (−2.2M in a day)